Within 10 years, about 95% of miles in the U.S. will be driven by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles, owned and operated by companies providing transportation-as-a-service (TaaS), according to a new study released last week.
And these TaaS vehicles will significantly reduce operating costs, including a 90% decrease in finance costs. “Finance costs are related to time; higher utilization will see better capital efficiency and lower finance costs on a dollar-per-mile basis,” according to the study. “A finance charge is based on an annual or monthly ownership period; because TaaS vehicles will cover 10 times the miles in any period, the cost-per-mile for finance is 10 times less.”
The report “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries,” was released last week by San Francisco think tank RethinkX.
Self-driving EV carshare plans, in which consumers will subscribe to a service, will be “intrinsically more reliable and efficient” and much cheaper than owning a vehicle with an internal combustion engine (ICE) powered by a fuel, according to the study.
And as a result, the oil, insurance, finance, and transportation industries will need to start preparing for the disruption now, as they will face a mass migration away from their old-model products and services.
Other key findings in the study include:
- Using TaaS will be four to 10 times cheaper per mile, than buying or financing a new car, and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing paid-off vehicle, by 2021.
- Other than the battery, all other parts of an autonomous EV are expected to last well in excess of 500,000 miles, and battery replacement adds little or no cost to TaaS, given the increase in overall vehicle lifetime if the battery is replaced.
- Vehicle lifetime will improve at 8% per year, leading to a 1-million-mile lifetime by 2030.
- The average American household will save $5,600 per year by giving up its gas-powered car and traveling by autonomous, electric TaaS vehicles.
- Autonomous self-driving cars engaged in TaaS will make up 60% of U.S vehicle stock.
- As demand for new vehicles plummets, 70% fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year.
- The number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030 as few cars travel more miles.
- Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030.
To learn more about the evolution of transportation, join us at the second annual Auto Finance Innovation 2017 conference, May 17-18 at the Hilton Bayfront in San Diego.
During one of the sessions, John Gartner, director at Navigant Research, will present “Vehicle of the Future,” in which he will map out what the future of vehicles and transportation could look like. To view the full agenda, click here, or visit www.autofinanceinnovation.com to register or learn more. To request a media pass, contact Skylar Taylor at firstname.lastname@example.org - Reader Likes This Post