Car Ownership Expected to Remain Firm in 2027, Survey Says

  • Diana Asatryan
  • January 26, 2017
  • 0

Gazing far into the future, many executives in Corporate America see … continuing individual car ownership, with greater, but not a predominance, of rideshare and autonomous transportation.

That’s the upshot from the State of Mobility survey conducted by Mobility Buzz and released yesterday.

The survey asked about 300 corporate respondents to “describe what mobility will be like in 2027,” and most said they expected much of the status quo to remain. The transportation industry has been “under pressure” to create new capacity and affordability in the ecosystem, one respondent wrote, leading to a shift in thinking for OEMs, insurance companies, as well as tech providers. This new mindset will have huge implications for the transportation industry as a whole in the next 10 years, according to the survey.

Overall, the survey suggests that by 2027, public transit will be the major carrier in urban areas, with improvements in city infrastructure (or “smart” cities). Private vehicle ownership is already on decline, especially among millennials, which works well, since smart cities – like Oslo, Norway – are already discussing a potential ban of private cars from city centers. This, according to the survey, will speed up the widespread adoption of self driving vehicles, with estimated 30% of all cars being autonomous by 2027 — a “once-in-a-generation” transformation, according to Daniel Ramot, CEO of ridesharing startup Via.  

“We believe there is a massive transition from private, human-operated vehicles to shared, on-demand electric, and, in the future, autonomous public transportation,” he said during the Israel Tech Meetup last week. “The ultimate vehicle is a shared, autonomous, on-demand, electric shuttle bus.”

The Mobility Buzz State of Mobility survey gathered about 300 respondents from various sectors of the mobility industry: from the aircraft industry, to fleet management, telematics, software providers, and traditional OEMs.  

Still, there was healthy dose of uncertainty expressed in the survey results.

“It is too soon to expect [that in 2027] autonomous vehicles will be anywhere near ubiquitous,” one respondent said. “Sharing models will probably expand significantly, and see new entrants and new models. But I am unsure which path regulators will take, so it is hard to predict if simple questions like ‘will dealers be there’ have a huge beta.”

Check out more survey results here.

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